AAPL Outlook June 20th, 2013
Off to the Hamptons today. Wont be back until Monday so posts will be limited. Quick thoughts on what’s next for this stock. Back on June 8th, I called for a first level swing short target in AAPL of 418 from 450 level. Before reading further, I highly recommend watching my detailed AAPL chart analysis video on Vimeo (https://vimeo.com/68096524) if you haven’t done so already because what I’m going to talk about next is related to that.
With the futures down about 9 handles on the SPX at the time of this writing, AAPL should have no problem reaching this 1st swing point target tomorrow and perhaps even exceed it some depending on how the market behaves. The lower the better for me :)
Under NORMAL market behavior , look for an Oversold bounce on the hourly chart between 415-417 to perhaps 425 at minimum especially as we head into Quadruple witching on Friday and the Market Makers want your money! (not saying this is exactly how its going to play out but be mindful of options expiration). I expect the rebound to fail eventually and we will see the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly currently at 404.79. There is a wild alternative scenario I am considering that may stop further bleeding at the 415 level but right now that’s not important.
The monthly as we have been calling is a continuation bear flag with a downside target of 355-360 on a longer timeframe but ignore this for now because there are other levels in play before getting to this target, especially 415-418, 405 and 380. So watch this LEVEL at 415-417 CAREFULLY to see if and how a bounce plays out (we may readjust our strategy later on but use this as a guideline). Time will tell.
Keep in mind that no trade plan plays out exactly as you want as the market is designed to fool the most number of people so think about that next time you set trade expectations and MORE IMPORTANTLY, how you’re going to tackle it when things don’t go the way you want them to. That is what will make you a better trader in the long run.
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Regards and Good luck!